Lead time controls your inventory math. If your factory needs 12 weeks and your sales velocity is 1,000 units/month, you need to reorder when inventory drops to 3,000-4,000 units (12 weeks of sales plus a 1-2 week safety buffer). Miscalculating lead time is the most common cause of stockouts in young CPG brands.
Realistic lead time ranges by sourcing model:
- White label (in-stock catalog SKUs, custom label only): 2-4 weeks
- Private label (stock formula, custom packaging): 6-10 weeks
- Custom private label (formula tweaks, custom packaging): 10-16 weeks
- Contract manufacturing — reorders (formula and packaging already validated): 8-14 weeks
- Contract manufacturing — first run (includes formula development, stability, pilot batch): 16-26 weeks
- Beverages with thermal processing (HPP, retort): Add 2-4 weeks to baseline for processing scheduling
- Cosmetics with stability hold (typically 4-12 weeks): Stability hold often runs in parallel with packaging procurement, so net lead time impact is 2-6 weeks
What inflates lead time: backordered raw materials (especially trendy ingredients on allocation), tooling lead time on custom packaging (4-12 weeks), label revisions (a label revision after print can add 2-4 weeks), QC failures requiring rework, stability hold extensions, and shipping/customs delays for imports.